Wednesday, April 25, 2012

GAME 7 WILL BE DECIDED BY THE GRINDERS


Like many other Caps’ fans, I cannot stop thinking about Game 7.  I’ve repeatedly replayed different game scenarios in my mind—but none have improved my confidence in predicting the outcome of the game.  Based on history the Capitals don’t stand a chance, but this team is different.  In the past, the scoring burden was placed heavily on a few star players (and they failed miserably).  Dale Hunter was brought in and has successfully changed the mindset and strategy of the Capitals.  The stars are still important, but the secondary players are also a key component in the Capitals' success.  Up to this point in the series, they have delivered.  I don’t expect anything to change for game 7—the Capitals’ secondary players will have a major impact.

The Capitals’ grinders (Laich, Brouwer, Aucoin, Beagle, Chimera, Hendricks, Knuble, and Ward) have nearly kept pace with the scorers (Ovechin, Semin, Backstrom, and Johansson).  Overall, the scorers lead the grinders 15-11 in points and 7-5 in goals.  Removing all points scored during the 30+ minutes of powerplay time, the scorers still lead the grinders 11-8 in points.  

However, the Capitals’ grinders have not played well the entire series.  In the first three games of the series, Boston’s secondary players were the key to Boston jumping out to a 2-1 lead.  Chris Kelly, Benoit Pouliot, and Daniel Paille all had goals, resulting in a combined +8 for the Boston’s third and fourth liners.  However, in the past three games the tables have turned, with the Capitals recording a combined +6 and Bruin’s a -10.  Mike Knuble’s physical presence (and perhaps even Jeff Schultz’s demotion) has helped the Capitals match up better.  As a whole, the grinders have brought their “A” game.

 
 
Similarly, the Bruin's third defensive pair started well but relapsed in the previous two games.  In the first four games they were a +7, but faltered to a - 4 in the past two


The Capitals' improved play has forced Claude Julien to adjust his strategy.  He has shuffled lines and adjusted playing time.  Most significantly, Boston's third defensive pairing has seen considerably reduced playing time and effectively limited Boston to skating four defensemen.  All four of these defensemen have seen increased ice time, but none more than Chara. To put it in perspective during game 2, Chara was on the ice 33:44 of the 82:56 minutes available.  In game 6, he skated 30:33 of the 63:17 minutes available.  The Bruin’s simply don’t have any other options on the backend.  Regardless of how many days off, Julien’s "do or die" strategy will eventually catch up with the Bruins.  The Capitals are well aware of the possibility of a tired Bruins defense (as noted in Beagle’s latest playoff diary) and will look to exploit it.  If the Capitals’ top two lines are able to capitalize in the final game, a lot of the credit should go to the grinders.



In the end, if the Capitals come out the winner of this series it will have been a team effort.  With a series this tight, the tiniest details will likely determine the outcome.  This is the first series in recent memory, where if Ovechkin doesn’t score, the Capitals still have a chance to win.  Maybe it is time for Joel Ward to get back on his goal/game pace he was on last year.  Or maybe the wiley veterans Mike Knuble or Troy Brouwer will net a couple.  Regardless of who steps up, role players have been as important as the stars and I expect the trend to continue.

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